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Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak

By: Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Binding: Paperback
Publisher: Hill & Wang
ISBN: 080902957X
ISBN-13: 9780809029570
Released: 01 Jun 2006
RRP: £9.99
Average Rating:

Customer Reviews

A history of oil - By: P. Ryding, 02 Jun 2008
Excellent & informative read, not just on Hubbert's peak oil theory, but also on the history of oil, drilling techniques, extraction & the possible future oil alternatives such as hydrogen & biofuels.
A practical view of the end of oil - By: blergle, 23 May 2008
The author says early on that he isn't going to cover the politics, economics or environmental consequences of peak oil & he doesn't. This book is purely about the geological & practical side of the problem.

And it's non the worse for that. It's a refreshing change to find a book that doesn't carp on about carbon emissions or how terrible big cars are, just where oil comes from & why production has peaked. On top of that there's good coverage of why the so callled oil alternatives like shale oils aren't as much of an alternative as they are touted to be.

All in alll this is a cracking book on the subject. Authoritative & yet very readable.
Conversational examination of what happens as the oil runs out - By: Rolf Dobelli, 02 Jun 2006
Geologist M. King Hubbert gained renown by predicting an end to the era of abundant energy. His 1956 projection that U.S. petroleum production would peak in the early 1970s & then decline has come true. Production leveled off & has never gone up again. So, if you are betting against global projections based on Hubbert's metrics, you are, in a very real sense, betting against history. Author, professor & geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a leading proponent of Hubbert's theories. His pleasant, very conversational book thoroughly examines why Hubbert appears correct: He explains how & why - unless public & private powers begin to react & plan - the energy shortage will change everyone's life, & could lead to famine & beyond. This book is similar in tone to Deffeyes' earlier work, "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage." Some messages bear repeating & - particularly since this iteration is so clearly presented & rich in updated information - we believe that this is one of them.
"The fat lady is singing" (p. 49) - By: Dennis Littrell, 24 Apr 2005
"Hubbert's Peak" is at the top of the bell-shaped curve of world oil production, just at the spot where production starts to decline. Geologist Kenneth Deffeyes sets a likely date: Thanksgiving Day, 2005. I have read other sources & they agree that half the oil in the ground will be out of the ground by a similar date or not later than about 2010. True, there are others who give it another decade or so, but they are in the minority. At any rate, Deffeyes has his old mentor's curve to support his view. M. King Hubbert was the guy who predicted with startling accuracy when US oil production would peak (early 1970s). Deffeyes uses the same methodology to predict the peak for world oil production.

The bugaboo here of course is that world oil demand will not decrease, but with the rapid industrialization of places like China & India, it will increase, perhaps dramaticallly. The result? Higher oil prices, of course. In fact, Deffeyes's book, written last year, effectively predicted the current spike in oil prices! Clearly he is a man to listen to. But the salient point is in his title: "Beyond Oil."

Metaphoricallly, he sees us gazing down from Hubbert's peak (which is exactly where we are) looking back & looking forward & asking, just what will the world be like "beyond oil"? Ah, yes, like the baby suckling the bottle, we will soon or late, abruptly or with planned gradualness (but always with some kind of real discomfort), have to give up our dependence on cheap oil & switch to something else.

What Deffeyes does so very well in this intriguing & thoroughly enjoyable book is first give us the background on oil, where it came from, & explain in detail why it's clear that production is about to decline. It is interesting to note that the Hubbert/Deffeyes method alllows us to chart how much oil is left simply by gauging past & current production. I was surprised at this, because who is to say how much is left in the ground; but Deffeyes's point is that oil exploration & production has been so extensive world-wide that just by reading the production we can realize what is left. In other words, if the oil were there, it would have been discovered & drilled for. This is not to say that there are not some (smalll) fields left undiscovered. There are a few, no doubt, but like puddles added to a great lake, they won't affect the overalll picture.

Then he explores the extent to which we can switch to natural gas and/or coal to create electricity & to run our transportation systems. The US has some of the largest coal reserves in the world along with China & Russia. But the problem with coal is pollution & toxins & the cost of filtering them out at the smokestack. China right now uses coal for almost everything, including cooking family meals, & the clouds, reminiscent of those that choked London during the Industrial Revolution, are gathering thickly over Chinese cities. But Deffeyes notes, "...we likely will be forced to choose either increased pollution from coal or doing without a significant portion of our present-day energy supply." (p. 98)

Next he looks into the possibility of greater production from tar sand, heavy oil & oil shade. Canada has huge reserves, we have substantial ones, but the question is cost of extraction & refinement. Deffeyes delineates the difficulties.

Finallly he comes to nuclear power. His expression strongly suggest that we need to rethink our attitude toward the nuke (and possibly learn to love it!).

There is also a chapter on the so-callled "hydrogen economy." I have read a couple of books on the prospects for fuel cells using hydrogen as a "clean air" replacement for gasoline & I can tell you that for several reasons we are long, long way from that reality. Deffeyes succinctly reiterates that view.

The final chapter, "The Big Picture" is most interesting. Deffeyes, who is a gifted teacher as well as being a seasoned geologist, points to another, perhaps more acute shortage (albeit many years in the future): mineable phosphate. He brings this up to make the point that the coming oil shortage is just another obstacle along the way that we clever humans will have to negotiate. He also notes that global per capita oil production peaked long ago in 1979! (p. 177) We are producing people faster than oil. Another topical point: world oil consumption is about 25 billion barrels a year; US consumption about a fourth of that. The reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge equal about 5 billion barrels, or as Deffeyes puts it, the equivalent of world use for two or three months.

Some Deffeyes-isms:

"Trade in your Hummer or Porsche Cayenne; find some other way of publicizing your testosterone." (p. 8)

On his discovery of "queueing theory" (well-known to phone companies & others who have to regulate traffic): "All I knew about queueing was that the word had five consecutive vowels." (p. 31) (Actuallly "queuing" is an acceptable spelling.)

Commenting on freshmen studying environmental issues "through literary, philosophical, ethical, spiritual, or other humanistic perspectives" (instead of getting out in the field): "We've elevated scientific ignorance to an art form." (p. 169)

"All policy wonks & alll futurologists need to keep a geologist around." The implication being, somebody who isn't afraid to get his or her hands dirty, & somebody who knows that the oil peak "is just one of the geological constraints on our future society." (p. 141)

On a very efficient oil drilling site: "The crew on site will consist of a driller & a dog. The driller is there to feed the dog. The dog is there to bite the driller if he touches anything." (p. 26)