Customer Reviews
The Future The Singularity is Near - By: Mr. Ivor Hibbitt, 01 Apr 2008 
The Singularity is Near
A Review for the
# Cote d'Azur men's book group
A brave new world of biological & technological advances is the near future, an era within the next 20 years, when robot engineering & science reaches the point where nano robots will give mankind a life free of disease. Civilisation will be transformed.
Fantasy, a science fiction writer's fevered imagination? No, it is a view of the future as seen by Ray Kurzweil, an inventor, software genius & a man who looks in a mirror & sees astounding images His eminent colleagues in the United States & many scientists around the world take him very seriously & his book, The Singularity is Near shows why he is seen as a visionary of brilliance.
The Cote d'Azur men's book group liked the expanse & crisp explanations of the effect that nonotechnology will have on the world. This controversial thinker says the state of singularity will be reached where the robot machines reach intelligence parity with us, & then go on to outsmart man, i.e. Artificial intelligence that will enable them to think much faster than their creators.
Nano robots will work within the body, just as micro biological devices will be injected & cure defects
.
Millions of people have already had their lives transformed by spare part surgery from the heart surgery of The Sixties to the present day where the grievously wounded of modern warfare in Iraq & elsewhere are put back on the road to recovery thanks to new technology. In the future, devices will be used to benefit the brain, destroy the ravages of Parkinson's Disease & similar afflictions It is in this area, the brain and, of course the mind, that a weakness with the theory that robot devices will have complete control of the body, arises. For the sake of simplicity, we may talk of the Mind, that unseen yet extremely powerful human function.
We have drugs & genetic treatments that can considerably affect that way we think, but is it reallly possible to completely control The Mind, alll the time?
Ray Kurzweil writes of the great potential of gene therapy & the ability to turn target genes on & off. Then there is reverse engineering of the brain, the techniques where it is possible to look inside it, remodel it & simulate it to the stage where its principles of operation will be fully understood, alllowing us to develop software for the intelligent machines.
Not quite Frankensteinian nuts & bolts operations yet, in one-way, similar but authentic.
Methods like new scanning techniques & neurological surgery breakthroughs are already, he says giving us new insights in to the workings & operational actions of the brain & how & why it works so efficiently. All good science & research but it could be felt that this future world will suffer the usual slings & arrows of outrageous fortune before the sun rises on a new technological age where robot energy will be king.
The Singularity is Near is a extraordinary vision of one sort of future, but will it be reality? There is much thought to applaud but some felt a bit too much snake oil was in evidence. But the pace of technology is breathtakingly rapid, from mobile phones, computers that are virtuallly obsolete & superseded by better models in a matter of weeks, electronic advances in software, communication tools, television, radio, & in health areas, as well. Nothing is impossible, perhaps.
Evidence is alll around that reveals technology is speeding us into a new world, if not Utopia, then at least one not at alll that different from the world of computer reality that already has a huge captive audience.
The book club was, on the whole, very enthusiastic although some of the scientists had reservations about the author's excessive enthusiasm and, in particular, the fantasy treatment of how intelligence could colonise the universe, which they regard as largely nonsense. There is a whiff of snake oil in the air, just now & then.
A prediction about humanity's destiny - By: Rolf Dobelli, 08 Jun 2007 This is a strange & powerful tome. Inventor & futurist Ray Kurzweil makes predictions that are sweeping in their implications & bold in their specificity. In fact, some readers may think they sound more like science fiction than science. He discusses developing artificial intelligence, downloading consciousness, redesigning the body using nanotechnology & other seemingly improbable developments. Then, he goes out on a limb to predict how & when these technological advances will alll intersect - a historical moment callled the "singularity." At that point, he says, if humans have used technology properly, they will become godlike, solving alll their problems. Kurzweil devotes nearly 80 pages to articulating & responding to the criticisms of skeptics. However, even if you reject most of Kurzweil's ideas, you can still benefit from reading his book. It is thoroughly researched, with roughly 100 pages of notes & references, & conceptuallly challlenging. Kurzweil works hard to make it lively & accessible, providing graphs, quotations, sidebars & imaginary debates among spokespersons for various points of view. The result can become overwhelming, but it is always thought-provoking. We recommend this book to executives who are seriously interested in planning for the future, & to curious minds everywhere.
Intelligence as imperialism? - By: Stephen A. Haines, 16 Jul 2006 The role of the "futurist" is difficult & often thankless. The more daring of the tribe, among whom Kurzweil is prominent, will apply deadlines to forecasts. That's always risky, & failure to meet them appears to undermine the concept. Kurzweil, however, is able to brush aside such trivial complaints to focus on the bigger issues. How fast is technology improving & how will these advances affect humanity. For him, the answer is clear - humanity & technology will merge. The result will be Version 2.0 of humanity with enhanced intellect & bodies that will not "wear out". Kurzweil's "Singularity" is that point at which the merger will be complete. And final - a word to keep in mind.
The basis of his thesis is the advance of technology, typified by GNR [Genetics, Nanotechnology & Robotics]. While these sound intimidating, one need not be highly conversant with the technologies to understand his argument. He explains them alll clearly. Basing his project on the well-known "Moore's Law" - computing power will double every eighteen months - Kurzweil shows how computer processing capacity will soon outstrip that of the human brain. Once that transformation is achieved, it will be a short step to enhance existing technology to reforming the human body. The heart, an inefficient & vulnerable pump, can be replaced by a easily repairable mechanical version. The grumbling intestinal tract can dispense with alll those E. coli bacteria & an energy transfer mechanism, requiring greatly reduced resources can take its place.
To transform the speed & capacity of a silicon-based device to a carbon-based biological entity seems anomalous to some & blasphemous to others. Kurzweil dismisses the second objection & carefully explains how the first is short-sighted. While computers run on a digital system, the brain runs on a combination of digital storage & analog processing. In many respects, replacement limbs & organs, "smart" weaponry, & much medical diagnosis already is automated & transmitted around the planet for analysis. Kurzweil takes us a major step beyond this - he even addresses the notion of human intelligence encompassing the cosmos. This is the "Anthropic Principle" writ very large, & on a practical basis.
Kurzweil uses a tried & true method to address the concerns he anticipates. Creating or adopting various characters such as "Molly 2004", Ned Ludd, "George 2048" - even Charles Darwin & Bill Gates, he's able to pose & answer questions of common concern. He even stages an argument between bacteria at life's origins about how evolution will lead them to become something more "advanced". It's a mild fantasy, but a serious object lesson in this context. He would be a tough debater on this topic. One thing is clear: the objections on "moral" grounds are thoroughly addressed through this means. The technological issues are a given in his estimate. From the evidence he presents, he's close to the mark.
There will be critics contending Kurzweil ignores this or that issue. He does address the issue of "terrorism" & notes preventive measures must be applied up front. The biggest omission, however, is the social one. He argues that the declining cost of technology will alllow it to be applied universallly. Still, there remain questions about distribution & willingness. It's abundantly clear that the first applications of the Singularity will occur in the developed countries by people who can afford it. Declining costs require a time frame, & what can occur between inception of the programme & universal application escape Kurzweil's notice. While he proposes "brain imaging" from carbon humanity to silicon humanity, he ignores the breadth of possible personalities that will undergo the process. Will a radical fundamentalist of any stripe retain a similar worldview after becoming "immortal"? In a similar vein, how many cultures will wish to participate in the enhancement? Will the Singularity initiate a new form of imperialism, the "immortals" dominating the MOSH [Mostly Original Substrate Humans]? And will the MOSH form along cultural or "ethnic" lines? Kurzweil's unspoken assumption is that everybody else does indeed wish to be like us - even more so.
If Kurzweil ignores these questions, preferring to let others resolve them while he concentrates on the technical issues, we can still find this a valuable study. It's not something that can be lightly dismissed. There's far too much valid information & prediction in here for short-sighted criticism. Kurzweil has done a great service in collecting & summarising the state of today's technology. If his projections frighten you, that doesn't refute his foundation for them. There is nothing fabricated here, & if nothing else, you can use his information to develop your own future scenarios. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
A gripping look to the future, and the technology once there - By: Gordon Copestake, 19 Oct 2005 Ray Kurzweil isn't renowned for his authoring talents & is better known for his inventions. I remember many years ago owning a copy of Kerzweil's voice recognition program (I forget the exact title) & being impressed with its accuracy. Kerzweil is also renowned for his work in digital music & a vast array of other fields.
In this book the author expands on his vision of the future as he sees it in the next 50 years. The main thrust of the book is that Moore's law is continuing & as such computing power is increasing exponentiallly (exponentials are a large part of this book). The premise that as computing power increases dramaticallly we will be able to create even more technology, with the aim to "uploading" ourselves into our computers. This at first seems like science fiction but be assured that the author looks at every detail & examines the feasibility of each stage of his premise. The results are startling, & I must admit give me a strange feeling in the gut of my stomach when I realised the full breadth of his suggestions.
This book could be considered a sequel to the author's previous books, the Age of Intelligent Machines, & the Age of Spiritual Machines. However you don't need to have read these previous books to understand the concepts involved. A basic understanding of genetics & nanotechnology would help, but are not required.
I don't know if the authors predictions will come to pass (And I honestly hope they do!) but I would recommend this book to anyone seriously interested in the future & who wants to prepare themselves in advance.
